Start with the business, not the national label. A wholesaler paid by retailers, a contractor supplying a public project and a restaurant serving salaried households can face different cash pressures. The useful question is which receipts could arrive later, by how much, and whether the business can meet its obligations in the meantime.
The historical baseline — The IMF’s July 2025 assessment described a sharp slowdown in non-oil growth in 2024 and financing constraints associated with arrears. That gives a reason to examine payment channels. It does not establish today’s collection period for an Iraqi SME, and the release’s 2025–2026 forecasts are not observed results.
Our assessment — Exposure passes through a chain of transactions. Record the share of sales to each major customer, the agreed payment date and the actual collection date. Where a customer depends on public spending, verify that connection rather than infer it from location or sector. The same exercise applies in Federal Iraq and the Kurdistan Region, using each customer’s contracts and payment history.
The worked example below separates a cash timing problem from profitability. A firm can continue recognising the same sales and operating surplus while another IQD 30 million becomes tied up in unpaid invoices. A cash buffer of IQD 20 million would leave a gap of IQD 10 million before any mitigating action. This is our illustration, not an estimate of a typical Iraqi company.
Look at both sides of working capital. Extra inventory consumes cash; additional supplier credit can temporarily offset that requirement. Shorter supplier terms do the opposite. An offset is useful only when it is agreed and does not introduce charges, supply interruptions or lost discounts. Our calculator makes these assumptions explicit and keeps the one-time cash requirement separate from monthly operating surplus.
There are competing explanations for a late invoice: a documentation dispute, seasonal demand, a delivery issue or a customer’s own financing problem. Review invoice-level evidence before attributing a delay to public finances. Repeated partial payments or disputes about whether an invoice will be paid require a credit-loss assessment, beyond a timing model.
A practical weekly review — Compare promised and actual receipts for the largest customers, update overdue balances and test the next payroll and supplier dates against available cash. Use the stress test to decide which contracts need revised terms or closer collection follow-up. It is a screening calculation; a dated weekly cash forecast is still needed before a borrowing or spending decision.