The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development forecasts that Iraq’s economy will contract by 12% in 2026 and grow by 14% in 2027 in its regional economic outlook.
The bank links the downturn to disruption of oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz. Its recovery forecast assumes that oil exports normalise in 2027.
These figures are the bank’s projections, rather than measured annual outcomes. The export assumption is central to interpreting the expected rebound.